Posted at 10:42 PM in Current Affairs | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Posted at 04:32 PM in Current Affairs, Elie Wurtman, Gizmoz, Obama | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Not much I can add on a formal VC level to the postings by my VC blogging colleagues Brad Feld and Fred Wilson (definitely read what they have to say). Brad and Fred relate to the current financial crisis by focusing on what early stage start-ups need to do...which is mainly cut costs (and then cut them again) and survive this bleak period. Fred also points out the bit of positive analysis, that unlike 2000/2001 this is not "our" fault (i.e. not Internet entrepreneurs or their backers), but rather a global financial crisis that has its ripple effects across all sectors.
What I want to focus on is how to survive, and take the conversation one step further -- to ultimate entrepreneurial activity.
For me the "ultimate" is when entrepreneurs have no outside funding, when they literally have to work odd jobs, do whatever it takes to put food on the table, while at the same time moving their companies forward. The cleanest version of this would be a start-up that has only been funded to date by "sweat equity." (I will relate in a moment to other situations). When 2,3, or 4 friends come together to start a new venture, the goal should be to get as far as possible without taking outside money. That means keeping your day job[s], whatever it is, and creating something from nothing.
Oh, and besides sweat you might have to fork over some bucks...but not much. There is so much open source out there, free trial services, etc., that pizza money should suffice. And even if you weren't working on a start-up you would need to eat.
The problem in today's start-up culture (certainly in the US and Israel, the markets I know best) is that we have educated entrepreneurs that they need to "raise money." I believe if people are passionate about what they are doing, the goal should be to raise their energy level, and that of their co-founders. Money should be a luxury, a nice-to-have, not a must.
Now, this path is only for the truly driven. Not so good for people with families or other major life commitments. And should be for a specific period of time (anywhere from 6 months to 6 years, depending on your stamina and personal situation). "I don't have time" is the mantra of those who choose not to make time. Sometimes, for good reason-- because you already have children, family, community, that already have received your time pledge. In a time of financial crisis, you probably are not a good candidate for ultimate entrepreneurial activity. That is simply being self-aware.
Now lets look at what happens when you did take in outside money, and now are at a brick wall. You have used up the financing. You want to continue investing sweat equity (your time, which is priceless). Your investors, those who forked over hard cash for a piece of your dream (and did not take salaries) choose not to invest more cash. What happens now? How do you value your time, vis a vis past investors, and what should happen to the cap table? While 99% of the time this is not talked through at the time of investment (and we at Jerusalem Capital are just as guilty), I believe the ethics that should rule is as follows: When someone invests in you (be they formal VC, angel, or family), they are investing in you and your dream. The goal is not to pay you a salary for a few months or years. Salaries are for salaried workers, not for ultimate entrepreneurs. You want a salary, go get a job. Less risk, and sometimes less direct financial reward.
When I invest, it's because I believe in the people, and expect them to whatever is in their power to bring about success (and a return on my hard earned dollars invested in the dream). If there comes a time, when to put food on the table they need to take a day job, so be it, but the moment I come on board, I expect to be treated as a partner.
Now, in formal VC documents and investment agreements, we do speak to situations of next round investors, dilution by new investors, etc. That is the written law (and like most written laws, it is harsh, full of "wipe-outs," "reset rounds," and "death spirals." But then there is the oral law, the law of good faith and integrity. That law demands that everyone involved keep the dream alive, as long there is hope.
Now, if a partner loses all hope, and explicitly gives up, the status qou changes. The cap table should change. But hope should NOT be dependent on whether salaries are being pulled out every month. And hope is very difficult to measure. It's like weighing air. My best advice is to leave nothing unspoken -- talk through where the company is, where it wants to get to, and reach deep down to see who still has hope and can remain committed.
In times like this, hope and commitment are the most important ingredients to potential success. Obviously one cannot run forever on empty, and quite difficult to completely survive on air (most breathatarians don't survive that long).
May our world be blessed with a quick recovery and may none of us need to run on empty or survive on air for longer than absolutely necessary.
Posted at 07:27 AM in Current Affairs, family, Valuation, Venture Capital, Venture Fund Process | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
While I wish for all of us a Shana Tova Umetuka (Happy "Sweet" New Year), want to send thoughts especially to Gilad Shalit and Jonathan Pollard. They will not be able to celebrate the new year tonight with their families, may this be the last Rosh Hashana they spend in captivity.
V'shavu Banim L'gvulom. This year. Amen.
Posted at 04:34 PM in Current Affairs, Religion, Zionism | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
For me, anything associated with the Wall Street Journal takes on an air of seriousness, woodcuts instead of photos, distinctive typeface, the whole package commanding authority. Now I know that perception is often far from reality, but the highlight of attending Demo conference last week was a fireside chat (well, without an actual fire) between Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher, the producers of D conference, and columnists for the Wall Street Journal. And let me tell you, the conversation was nothing like I expected, especially from Kara Swisher.
Before I get to Kara's substantive comments about my favorite over-valuation in the past ten years, I want to dwell for a moment on how personal Kara got in her comments. From her "bite me Comcast" to her reactions to the "other conference" happening up in the BayArea (TechCrunch50), Kara was not at all the reserved Wall Street Journal reporter/columnist I was expecting (Walt stayed more true to pre-conceived notions).
First, in reaction to TechCrunch, Kara said (and this is in front of entire Demo audience, not sure if it was web-cast):
"Getting lectured in journalism ethics by Michael Arrington is like getting parenting tips from Britney Spears."
Kara and Walt then turned to social networks and the grandaddy of them all, Facebook. Again Kara got a little [too] personal, talking about Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg as a "twelve year old with stupid clothing choices."
Of course, she did follow that with some somewhat more serious thoughts/questions on Facebook and other social networks like: How do they make money? How do they grow?
Both of those are the key questions, Kara didn't have any answers. Not sure that Mark does either...
Why do I dwell on all of this so much?
For me, a relative outsider, in from Jerusalem to check in on the pulse of technology entrpreneurship, I was reminded how much of an insider game the tech world remains, even in the always on, twittered to death era we live in. What do I mean by that? Well, why do people physically gather in conferences to begin with? Because being there matters, and in the end personalities drive business.
A lot can be accomplished in the virtual world, where things can get personal as well, but in the end physical interaction can't be beat.
Last week TechCrunch passed 1,000,000 subscribers to its RSS feed, which is quite an accomplishment (consider that the Wall Street Journal subscriber base is only about 2 million). Michael Arrington and friends definitely are a force to be reckoned with -- and they know all too well that physical beats virtual hands down. Which is why Techcrunch hosted a competing [physical] conference to Demo.
What does this mean for Jerusalem Capital and our portfolio companies? That we need to get personal as well, we need to be in direct contact with key industry players on a regular basis, and need to show up in order to be counted.
Oh, and regards to the 12 year old with poor clothing choices, well, you all know what I think about Facebook....definitely not worth what Mark and Microsoft think it is/was, but also not going away anytime soon, unless they run out of money. And with Lehman days away from a fire sale, anything is possible.
Posted at 02:26 PM in Current Affairs, Facebook, Jason Calacanis, twitter, Valuation, Venture Capital, Web/Tech, Weblogs | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
As you might have heard, another attack occurred in Jerusalem today, with a resident of East Jerusalem using a tractor as a weapon of mass destruction. The tragic irony of using a tool intended for construction purposes as an instrument of terror is not lost on anyone.
And as usual, only a few hours separated me from the awful events. Drove past with my daughter only few hours before. Was there yesterday. Barack Obama is there tonight, Gordon Brown was there yesterday. Literally at the crossroads of the [Western] world.
How do we in Jerusalem carry on? Well, part of us turns off. Grows numb. We built up these ways of coping with almost constant horror during the years 2001-2004, when barely a week went by without someone blowing themselves up, and yet we had lives to lead. But that is not all--if it was I and my family would have left here long ago.
There is also still a part of us that believes in a better tomorrow. And that somehow, in some way, we can help contribute to bringing that better tomorrow closer, making it a reality.
For now, let us pray that the dozens of innocent hurt in todays attack enjoy a speedy recovery, as best as science will allow (already a report that one person lost his leg when his car was crushed). And pray as well for a better tomorrow. And tomorrow morning, after a few hours of fitful sleep, may we have the strength to do something to make it a better day than today.
Posted at 11:04 PM in Current Affairs, Jerusalem, Religion | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Excellent posting by Hank Williams today on Silicon Alley Insider, which is one of my favorite sources. See full text of his original post below, and definitely check out the discussion that erupted within minutes on SAI...back and forth brings out the angst that many of us have been dealing with over the past few years.
With the success of Google, who weave billions of dollars of profit from millions of "keywords", convincing the world that a "click" has inherent value, there has been a run on the bank. Literally. Everything is now supposed to be supported by "advertising." But remember, as I have often said, in the end someone needs to buy something. That's how advertising works. Otherwise its a massive ponzi scheme.
Traditional media companies have always had (and will have) advertising as a dominant (and sometimes sole) source of revenues. But advertising was never 100% of the revenues, think of movies, video games, even most daily newspapers. There is a price. It is not free.
And now think of services that are not media companies -- there is no historical justification for free. Salesforce.com, a pioneer of using Web X.0, charges. And many gladly pay. Is Gmail free? For now. I doubt it will last, and if it does will mean a re-shuffling, but not complete revolution.
Advertising has its place, but I for one am tired of very smart entrepreneurs acting like deer in the headlights, who have been brainwashed by VCs with too much money that usage/users are all that's important. We will be facing a capital crunch in the days, months, and years ahead -- those who have developed real revenue generating businesses will survive.
I agree with Hank, that VCs are killing many businesses, but there will be a revival of the dead. Make sure you are prepared!
Hank Williams April 4, 2008 9:20 AM
I believe it should be possible to start a small
business and to have a small number of profitable customers, and to
earn a living. From there, it should be possible to work hard, and to
grow your business into something substantial. Until recently, this was
the American way, and it applied to technology as much as to any other business. But no more.
In today’s “free” world, in most online business categories, it is inherently impossible to start a small self-sustaining business and to grow it. This is because in the digital world, advertising, the only real revenue stream, cannot support a small digital business. If businesses were based on the idea that people paid for services then small companies could succeed at a small scale and grow. But it is very hard to charge when your competition is free.
The economic problem with advertising businesses is that advertising businesses do not work without really significant scale. In the past, a good product or service could address a niche and succeed without being a home run. Today, a home run is required because if you do not reach a massive scale, advertisers are uninterested. And even if advertisers could be attracted, CPMs are so low that the revenue would be inconsequential. Small Internet businesses don’t work.
So how did we get here? In a word, VC.
Venture capital has totally distorted the market. VCs are investing billions of dollars in companies with instructions to get big fast and to worry about advertising revenue later. As a result the competition is for users and not for paying customers.
Unfortunately, to fix this, many more companies need to die.
With less “free” floating around, a more regular supply and demand dynamic can take hold, customers will have to pay for the things that are important to them and non-quantized growth dynamics can return. In the meantime, why should consumers pay for products and services that VCs and their pension fund investors are willing to give away for free?
The good news is at some point VCs will indeed realize how dumb all of this is and stop giving away everything of value on the Internet. This will all stop when the average VC can’t get any of his/her companies to scale because there is just too much VC sponsored free stuff out there. Then and only then will this crazy eyeballs business model redux finally be put to bed.
I cant wait.
SAI Contributor Hank Williams is a New York-based entrepreneur. He recently launched a new blog: Why Does Everything Suck? Exploring the tech marketplace from 10,000 feet.
Posted at 02:17 PM in Current Affairs, Google, Valuation, Venture Capital, Venture Fund Process, Web/Tech, Weblogs | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Google has represented the decade we are now winding down, and tracked the resurgence of the American economy after the blows of NASDAQ implosion in 2000 and then of course 9/11. With the succesful growth of Google, its IPO took off, and while I thought it was a short at 80, stock price continued to climb.
While the dollar did not follow the same meteoric rise over the past 6-7 years as the Google stock price, Google is many ways was keeping the dollar propped up, overshadowing the many serious problems in the American economy and government (not the least the American invasion and occupation of Iraq, costing the American taxpayer, which includes me, more money than it would take to feed all the hungry people in the world).
Clicks. Click throughs. PPC. Adwords. Adsense. These are the ingredients of Google's billions of dollars of profits (and still insane valuation). What it boils down to is the ultimate American value point: marketing. The Google guys convinced the world that clicks=$$, and until the emperors cloths start to fade noone knows he is standing there naked (or nude, if you prefer). But how well tested is the core Google theory? What are conversion rates really like? None of "know," tremendous amount of guesswork involved. Look back to my post on Jaxtr for a taste of emptiness of usage--10 million users and no revenue to speak of, in my eyes that is not a business.
Now, let me stress that while I know little about the public markets, I know far less about the global currency market. When my children ask me about the dollar falling in value against the Shekel, I blabber for a bit about "shakiness in the American economy," but actually have no idea what I am saying. I do know, however, that much like Google, America marketed itself well, even in the face of some astonishingly stupid moves in the world. In 1990 we defended one dictatorship from another (to this day not clear why). In 2001, in response to 19 Saudi men bombing New York and Washington the US went to war in Afghanistan and Iraq. Go explain that one to your kids.
Now people are losing confidence in Google, and in the Greenback. As long as you cashed out and your life is all in dollars, nothing to worry about.
For those of us who live in the world, and I mean in the world...multi-currency, multi-lingual, multi-national, the rapid deterioration of the Google stock price and the dollar remind us that we cannot rest all our hopes on one player. Going global means being global, and even living in Jerusalem (in the center of the world) I am feeling left behind. Time to move savings in multiple currencies. Time to figure where the next waves are coming from -- because Google Greenbacks are so....what do we call this decade?
Posted at 12:05 PM in Current Affairs, family, Google, Jerusalem, Valuation, Web/Tech | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
When I am lack for words for myself, as I have been the past few days (really weeks, but hit home more this past Thursday night), as I passed the Mercaz Harav Yeshiva minutes after 8 teenagers were slaughtered while they studied in the library. I again passed there yesterday morning and afternoon. And then word came our that their killer was a Palestinian Jerusalemite from Jabel Mukaber, a village less than a mile from my house.
With so many conflicting thoughts racing around in my brain, trying to stay focused on my immediate family, my venture business, was so moved to receive the following note from a friend in California, for whom we are her only connection to Jerusalem:
Jacob, I just had to write to tell you how sad I was to read today’s news about the murders in Jerusalem. I know how hard you and your family have worked for peace, and how especially devastating it must be to see it eroded within your own city, and in such an ugly and senseless way. I am praying for reason and a shared humanity to prevail over ignorance and hatred, and am ever more grateful to know people like you and Haviva who live your lives in peace and teach your children love.
Martha
I certainly could not have said it better. Amen Martha. Amen.
Posted at 09:36 PM in Current Affairs, Jerusalem, Zionism | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
In many disciplines, going beyond the headline is important, but in the tech space, especially with start-ups (I include in that anyone yet to prove they can make serious money) facts are really important, because many of us tend to slip into la la land when talking about our products/service.
Take a look at this posting from FierceVOIP blog:
Skype scores 12M concurrent customers
February 21, 2008
Skype watchers noted the big VoIP provider this week enjoyed 12 million concurrent users for a short period. The peak occurred around 19:00 GMT and coincided to a period when both European and U.S. users were using Skype. According to the Skype Journal, the strong rise in usage reflects a recent lift in the take-up of Skype by U.S. customers. Over 80 percent of Skype's user base is offshore from the U.S. and Skype has long yearned for a bigger U.S. audience. The peaks are driven by its European base.
At the same time, Skype claimed to have clocked 100 billion minutes of audio and video usage. What that means is hard to get your head around, other than to note there are now 276 million users with registered Skype accounts. If only someone could work out how to make money from free telephony!
Now, did Skype actually have 12 million concurrent users? NO! They had 12 million on-line at the same time. Impressive, but not the same as 12 million people actually all making a phone call at the same time. Also need to remember that many Skype "users," including me, mainly use Skype as another IM tool, and rarely for actual phone calls. I do have some Euro loaded into my account, for those desperate times when I have wifi and need to call off the IP network (using SkypeOut).
The most important line of the post above was the last line, which is that Skype still has not figured out how to makes gobs of money from its "12 million concurrent users," much to Ebay's sadness (for those of you who already forgot that deal, Ebay bought Skype for billions of dollars, many of us are still trying to figure out why they would have paid anything...).
Call me old-fashioned, but while I love whiz-bang technology as much as the next person, a start-up is [at some point] supposed to actually become a business, which means turning a profit.
Oh, even in business you can be a loss leader at times (see here what my friend Rami Levi is doing to chicken prices in Israeli supermarkets) but that is quite simply a marketing ploy.
Writing a headline is an art, but those only get you so far. After the headline comes reality, and even if Skype really had 12 million people talking at the same time (imagine listening in), if it's gross profit margin is no better than Rami Levi, well, then they better start selling chicken--at least then people will get something to eat after all that talking (as a Vegan, only using chicken to make the point, would prefer tofu!).
Posted at 10:01 AM in Current Affairs, skype, Web/Tech | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)