Fred Wilson gets it head on in his posting (see below) on the coming revival of the IPO market for "venture backed companies," which for me is a euphemism for young companies starting to show promise but not controlled by a single investor (who could simply live off profits/dividends). The exit path for investors, option holders, etc. has traditionally been IPO, and M&A (if acquired for cash or by a public company with liquid shares).
I completely agree with Fred's analysis, but like many messianic prophecies, the question is not if, but when. On behalf of all of us in the start-up sector, may it be soon!
The End Of The IPO Drought Is Coming
I've said it a few times on this blog recently as offhand comments,
but I feel compelled to say it a bit more loudly. I think we will see
the end of the IPO drought for venture backed companies within the next
year, possibly by the end of this year. I don't know if this market
rally we've been having is a headfake or the end of the bear market. My
gut says we'll see at least one more pronounced down move before we see
bottom.
But either way, at some point investors are going to want to own
stocks again, and when they do, I think the old fashioned VC-backed IPO
will have quite a bit of appeal. Here's five reasons I think this is
going to happen:
1) VCs have been in the penalty box for almost a decade since we
committed the cardinal sin of foisting crap into the public markets.
Somehow the investment bankers who helped us do it got out a lot
earlier than we did. But we've done our time and others have replaced
VCs as enemy number one of public market investors.
2) There are a lot of really solid companies sitting in venture portfolios waiting for the right moment to go public. Stuart Ellman of RRE wrote last fall that:
RRE
has a number of companies that had zero revenues when we invested and
which are now doing $100 million or more in revenues and growing very
quickly. These companies have achieved what they needed to achieve,
become market leaders, yet they cannot go public or exit under the
assumptions that employees or founders assumed when they began.
So what do you do? Sit tight, be patient, and continue to grow the company.
3) Many of these companies are subscription-based or annuity
type business models that make for great public companies. Sarah Lacy
touched on this on her post about Open Table's IPO:
OpenTable is
hardly an Internet homerun. It’s frequently described as a consumer
Internet company, when really it’s a software-as-a-service company. The
good news –for this moment in time—is that that means Open Table
doesn’t have an ad model. It actually has paying customers in the form
of restaurants using its reservation software and paying it monthly
subscription fees.
4) When investors decide they want to own stocks again, they are
going to look for simple businesses, products they can understand,
balance sheets with cash and not much else, and growth without
leverage. Guess what? That's what the venture capital industry produces.
5) Sarbox is now well understood by the accounting industry and by
the finance teams inside of our companies. There are providers of
Sarbox compliance tools and services that have now brought the cost of
Sarbox compliance down to reasonable levels. I'm not saying that Sarbox
is good or that it doesn't need to be reworked (it does), but it's a
devil we know at this point and it will not impede the IPO boom when it
comes.
Last week the NVCA put out a four point plan to "restore liquidity in the venture capital industry"
at its annual meeting last week in Boston. It involves getting more
investment banks engaged in taking our companies public, spurring the
development of secondary market exchages and related pre-IPO liquidity
activities, continued lobbying for lower taxes on VCs and
entrepreneurs, and reform of Sarbox.
Regular readers know that I am a huge fan of the secondary market
idea and I welcome the NVCA's attention and energy on that issue. On
the other three, I think they are wasting their time. It's like the
government suing Microsoft while Linux was growing in popularity right
under their noses. I believe the market will take care of this problem
as soon as we get a market that wants to purchase equities.
And my gut says that time will come sooner than most think.
Fred Wilson is a partner at Union Square Ventures. He writes the influential A VC, where this post was originally published.